Kerry stronger on issues, better command of detail. But Bush really shone in the town hall forum. He looked relaxed and far less defensive and repetitive. I don't think tonight changed anybody's mind.
Apparently people who know a lot about polling think that a draw might favor the challenger. I don't know much about this but apparently the independents are more likely to swing towards the challenger when it comes time to vote (i.e. when they have to make up their minds). Apparently, the reason why they're "independents" to begin with is that the hesitate to support the incumbent. As they get to know the challenger they tend (about two thirds, apparently) to go with him beucase they were just "making sure" that he wasn't terrible.
Come to think of it, if this can be found on random blogs then it is obviously well understood by political consultants. The Republican strategy of tainting Kerry from the very beginning with flip-flopping and Swift Boats suddenly makes perfect sense to me...
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